The State of Play

The map

 Best Available Survey

Source: AP VoteCast, based on interviews with 110,485 likely voters and have been adjusted to reflect preliminary vote totals as of 10 a.m. ET on Nov. 4. The margin of error is 0.4 percentage points.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Gender

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Men	47%	46%	52%
Women	53%	55%	44%
Other	<1%	70%	24%

Age

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
18-29	13%	61%	36%
30-44	23%	54%	43%
45-64	36%	48%	51%
65+	27%	48%	51%

Race/Ethnicity

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
White	74%	43%	55%
African American or Black	11%	90%	8%
Latino or Hispanic	10%	63%	35%
Asian	2%	70%	28%
American Indian, Native American or Alaska Native	<1%	45%	52%
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander	<1%	36%	59%
Other	3%	51%	44%

Education

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
High school or less	27%	46%	52%
Some college/assoc. degree	34%	48%	50%
College graduate	24%	56%	42%
Postgraduate study	14%	58%	40%

White voters, education and gender

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
White non college men	19%	34%	64%
White non college women	24%	39%	60%
White college men	16%	46%	52%
White college women	14%	59%	39%
Non-white non college men	7%	68%	30%
Non-white non college women	10%	76%	21%
Non-white college men	4%	66%	31%
Non-white college women	4%	80%	19%
All others	<1%	70%	24%

Household income (2019)

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Under $50,000	38%	53%	45%
$50,000-$99,999	36%	48%	50%
$100,000 or more	25%	51%	47%

Urban/Rural

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Urban	21%	65%	33%
Suburban	45%	54%	44%
Small town	17%	43%	55%
Rural	18%	33%	65%

Religion

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Protestant	26%	38%	61%
Catholic	22%	49%	50%
Mormon	1%	24%	71%
Other Christian	18%	41%	57%
Jewish	3%	68%	30%
Muslim	<1%	64%	35%
Something else	8%	61%	36%
None	21%	72%	26%

Party affiliation

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Democrat/Lean Dem	47%	95%	4%
Republican/Lean Rep	48%	8%	91%
Independent	5%	51%	37%

ISSUES

Most important issue facing the country

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
The economy and jobs	28%	16%	81%
Health care	9%	65%	32%
Immigration	3%	12%	87%
Abortion	3%	9%	89%
Law enforcement	4%	18%	80%
Climate change	4%	86%	11%
Foreign Policy	1%	23%	72%
The coronavirus pandemic	41%	73%	25%
Racism	7%	78%	19%

U.S. economy

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Excellent/Good	43%	17%	81%
Not so good/Poor	57%	76%	22%

Coronavirus in the U.S.

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Completely/Mostly under control	19%	7%	91%
Somewhat under control	30%	25%	73%
Not at all under control	50%	83%	15%

How serious a problem is racism in U.S. society?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Very/Somewhat serious	76%	64%	34%
Not too/Not at all serious	24%	8%	90%

Affordable Care Act/Obamacare

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Repeal the law entirely	24%	4%	94%
Repeal parts of the law	25%	22%	75%
Leave the law as is	13%	74%	24%
Expand the law	37%	91%	7%

TRUMP VS. BIDEN

President Trump job approval

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Approve strongly	31%	2%	98%
Approve somewhat	16%	7%	89%
Disapprove somewhat	7%	65%	28%
Disapprove strongly	46%	97%	1%

Favorability: Joe Biden

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Very/Somewhat favorable	50%	93%	6%
Very/Somewhat unfavorable	48%	7%	90%
Don't know enough to say	1%	40%	53%

Favorability: President Trump

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Very/Somewhat favorable	46%	3%	96%
Very/Somewhat unfavorable	53%	92%	5%
Don't know enough to say	1%	51%	38%

Would you say Joe Biden is a strong leader?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	47%	93%	6%
No	52%	13%	85%

Would you say Donald Trump is a strong leader?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	50%	9%	89%
No	49%	93%	4%

Would you say Joe Biden is honest and trustworthy?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	49%	92%	7%
No	50%	10%	87%

Would you say Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	39%	3%	97%
No	60%	83%	14%

Would you say Joe Biden cares about people like you?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	54%	87%	12%
No	45%	8%	89%

Would you say Donald Trump cares about people like you?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	45%	5%	94%
No	55%	89%	8%

Would you say Joe Biden has the mental capability to serve effectively as president?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	51%	92%	7%
No	48%	8%	90%

Would you say Donald Trump has the mental capability to serve effectively as president?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Yes	50%	8%	90%
No	49%	95%	3%

Would you describe your vote for president mainly as FOR your candidate or AGAINST his opponent?

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
For your candidate	63%	40%	59%
Against his opponent	37%	70%	27%

Better able to handle the economy

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Joe Biden	39%	98%	<1%
Donald Trump	51%	6%	92%
Both equally	5%	79%	17%
Neither	4%	68%	17%

Better able to handle the coronavirus pandemic

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Joe Biden	47%	95%	4%
Donald Trump	38%	1%	98%
Both equally	6%	15%	82%
Neither	8%	21%	69%

Better able to handle policing and criminal justicce

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Joe Biden	43%	97%	2%
Donald Trump	46%	2%	97%
Both equally	4%	40%	55%
Neither	6%	54%	32%

VOTING

When you decided how you would vote

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
I've known all along	76%	53%	46%
I decided over the course of the campaign	19%	47%	48%
I decided in the last few days/Still haven't decided	5%	38%	50%

Vote in 2016

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
Hillary Clinton	38%	96%	3%
Donald Trump	41%	6%	93%
Someone else	6%	56%	27%
Did not vote	15%	56%	41%

First time voting in 2020

RESPONSE	SHARE OF VOTERS	VOTED FOR BIDEN	VOTED FOR TRUMP
First time voting	2%	57%	40%
Not	98%	50%	48%

Vote type