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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Well-Done

 For the writeup, what outcome most surprised you, and why?

For Monday: 

Questions on the paper?

WELL-DONE SCENARIO: Dems gain an astounding 43 House seats (NYT estimate) and at least 7 Senate seats, and maybe 9.




Foreign policy does not usually top Gallup's list of most important problems.

But affordability is the top issue, and foreign policy is feeding it.
    
Iran war: 
Energy: 

Inflation: 
Tariffs: 
Data centers: 
Immigration: 
Party-In-Government

  • House GOP leadership
  • Senate Majority leadership


Four Strategic Postures Since 2000 (House, by election year) 

                    Majority                              Minority 

In Party        Dems 08, 20                     GOP 06, 18
                    GOP 00, 02, 04, 16, 24      Dem 10,12,14,22
           
Out Party     GOP 10,12,14,22              GOP 08, 20
                    Dem 06, 18, 26                  Dem 00, 02, 04, 16, 24

Monday, November 2, 2026

Election Eve

For Wednesday, Mary Kate Godfrey, "How War, Tariffs, and Other Foreign Policy Issues Could Affect the U.S. Midterms," Council on Foreign Relations, October 29, 2026.

 Scenarios

Election Night (all times Eastern, so subtract 3)

Bruce Mehlman P `25:






Turnout: VAP and VEP

Direct Democracy

Districts and a gerrymandering game

Explaining Elections:  Geography and the Electoral College 

Explaining Elections:  Demographics
  • Gender and Marital Status
  • The Diploma Divide

Latino Voting
Explaining Elections:  Economics

Campaigns

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Civil Liberties

 For Monday, read the Madrid, Latino Century excepts on Canvas

Selma the movie(at 2:00): vs. the actual conversation between LBJ and MLK (first few minutes, skip to 6:00)




 


Inside door of the Supreme Court:







Edwards v Aguillard


Decision and opinions

Edwards v. Aguillard oral argument (start around 26:00)

From Topkis's comments -- an example of the value of slow reading:

Now, this bill was of course drafted by a theologian, or somebody versed in apologetics.
There's an amusing bit of evidence on that subject in the very language of the bill.
The bill keeps using... the Act keeps using the term "evidences" in the plural.
We lawyers never speak of "evidences" in the plural. We speak of "evidence", the singular.
And I got nagged by it, and I looked it up the other day.
And of course the only dictionary reference to "evidences" is to Christian apologetics: the evidences for Christianity. This is a matter of theological disputation.
Tocqueville (p. 267): "Nothing could be more obscure and out of reach of the common man than a law founded on precedent…. A French lawyer is just a man of learning, but an English or an American one is somewhat like the Egyptian priests, being, as they were, the only interpreters of an occult science."

In this case, Lemon v. Kurtzman
  • must have a secular purpose
  • must have a principal or primary effect that does not advance or inhibit religion, and 
  • cannot foster an excessive government entanglement with religion.
Bye, bye, Lemon v Kurtzman

The Bill of Rights
  • Amendment I  Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances. 
  • Amendment II A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed. 
  • Amendment III No soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law. 
  • Amendment IV  The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.
  • Amendment V  No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the militia, when in actual service in time of war or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation. 
  • Amendment VI  In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense.
  • Amendment VII  In suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise reexamined in any court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.
  • Amendment VIII Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.
  • Amendment IX The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
  • Amendment X  The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Courts, Civil Liberties, and Civil Rights

Citation 

  • IN US English, superscripts follow commas and periods.
  • Subsequent citation
  • Do not jam superscripts together.  To cite more than one source for a sentence, put them in the same note and separate them with semicolons.
  • Government and legal citation

For next time: Edwards v. Aguillard, which illustrates several distinctive features of American government and political culture: federalism, religion, the role of courts.

You need not look up the many references to precedent:  just be aware that SCOTUS opinions rely heavily on previous cases.

Appellate Courts

 Civil Liberties and Civil Rights: The Difference

Why did Hamilton originally reject a bill of rights?

Seneca Falls


Civil War Amendments

  • Amendment XIII Section 1. Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.
  • Amendment IV, Section 3. No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
  • Amendment XV Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude. Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.


Timeline of Civil Rights

Voting Rights and War

Selma the movie(at 2:00): vs. the actual conversation between LBJ and MLK (first few minutes, skip to 6:00)




 

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Research Assignment

Answer one of the following

Option 1:

In Federalist 78, Hamilton argued that the judiciary has “neither force nor will, but merely judgment” and must rely on the other branches to carry out its rulings. Test his claim against one Supreme Court decision that provoked a political backlash. Do not choose Brown, Roe, Dobbs, Obergefell, or Citizens United.

Use three kinds of research:

  • The president. Using the American Presidency Project (presidency.ucsb.edu), find what the sitting president said about the decision in the year after it: statements, press conferences, speeches, or signing statements. Quote at least two, with dates. Then determine what the administration did to enforce, ignore, or undercut the ruling.
  • Congress.gov. Find legislation members introduced within two years of the decision to reverse, limit, or punish it.
  • Newspapers. Using ProQuest Historical Newspapers or another library database, find reactions from at least two other elected officials in the month after the decision. 

Cite at least one scholarly source on presidential or congressional responses to the Court.

Did the backlash change anything? Did the president enforce the decision, resist it, or evade it? Did Congress pass any of the bills? Decide whether your case shows a Court as weak as Hamilton described, or stronger than he expected. Draw on Federalist 78 and Tocqueville.

Option 2

From the Cook list of "tossup" or "lean" House and Senate races, pick one incumbent running for reelection. Investigate whether the prospect of losing has changed how that official represents constituents. Has electoral pressure made the incumbent more responsive, or chiefly changed the campaign’s message? Focus on one issue. Compare the incumbent’s earlier record with campaign actions and statements. Look for changes in votes, policy positions, constituent service, or public appearances. Distinguish changes in conduct from changes in emphasis. Use Publius and Tocqueville’s discussion of elections and democratic government, as well as other class materials, to assess how elections hold officials accountable.  

Begin with the incumbent’s official (House, Senate)and campaign websites. Check claims against legislative records and independent reporting, especially local coverage. Use earlier news stories and archived webpages to establish what the incumbent said and did before the campaign.  (At least three sources must date from after September 1, 2026.) A competitive race alone does not prove that fear of defeat caused a change: look for evidence connecting the pressure to the official’s conduct.

Requirements

  • Length: Essays must be double-spaced and no more than six pages long. I will not read past the sixth page.
  • Format: Submit as a Word document only. Do not submit PDFs or Google docs. Cite all sources with endnotes (not footnotes) in Chicago/Turabian style. Endnote pages do not count toward the page limit.
  • For every primary source, give the full URL or database document number in your endnote. I will check citations at random. Cite Federalist and Tocqueville by page number in the editions on our syllabus.
  • AI Policy: You may use AI to locate primary and secondary sources, but you may not copy AI-generated summaries or arguments into your essay. Misrepresenting AI output as your own work is plagiarism and may result in referral to the Academic Standards Committee.
  • Writing: Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. 
  • Deadline: Upload essays to Canvas by 11:59 PM, Friday, November 13 (revised deadline). If you have trouble with Canvas, email it to me as a Word attachment. I reserve the right to dock essays a grade point for one day’s lateness, and a full letter grade thereafter.

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

The Law

Research paper

For next time:

  • Wurman, ch. 7-8, epilogue.
  • Federalist # 84
  • The Seneca Falls Declaration,  http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/senecafalls.asp

  • Two words to know about the law:  legal fees.

    A couple of basic distinctions



    The Dangers of the Law
    • Tocqueville (p. 267): "Our written laws are often hard to understand, but everyone can read them, whereas nothing could be more obscure and out of reach of the common man than a law founded on precedent.”
    • Prosecutorial discretion
    • Three felonies a day
    • Most district attorneys are elected officials.
      • "In most developed countries, particularly in continental Western Europe, Canada, and Japan, prosecutors are resolutely nonpolitical and nonpartisan. They are expected to make decisions about individual cases on their merits, without regard to public attitudes, opinions, and emotions or to politicians’ preferences or priorities. In the United States, however, local chief prosecutors in 45 states are elected (Perry 2006).1 In the federal system, US attorneys are appointed on the basis of partisan and sometimes ideological criteria. American prosecutors sometimes openly and unashamedly take media reactions, public opinion, and political considerations into account when deciding what cases to prosecute and how to handle them."
    • Most sheriffs are elected officials.
    Juries invest each citizen with a sort of magisterial office; they make all men feel that they have duties toward society and that they take a share in its government. By making men pay attention to things other than their own affairs, they combat that individual selfishness which is like rust in society.
    Juries are wonderfully effective in shaping a nation’s judgment and increasing its natural lights. That, in my view, is its greatest advantage. It should be regarded as free school which is always open and in which each juror learns his rights, comes into daily contact with the best-educated and most-enlightened members of the upper classes, and is given practical lessons in the law, lessons which the advocate’s efforts, the judge’s advice, and also the very passions of the litigants bring within his mental grasp. I think that the main reason for the practical intelligence and the political good sense of the Americans is their long experience with juries in civil cases.
    Civil and criminal cases

    Appellate Courts

    Tuesday, October 13, 2026

    Legislative Branch II



    For a week from today:
    Drawing on the Boehner, Franken, or Underwood readings, identify one aspect of congressional life you would enjoy and one that would drive you crazy. Would you thrive on bargaining, making speeches, helping constituents? What would test your patience or tempt you to compromise your ideals? Be candid. You need not pretend that you would make a great lawmaker.

    Burke, Reflections on the French Revolution: 
    In all bodies, those who will lead, must also, in a considerable degree, follow.

    Hill leadership

    Mike Wirth and Dr. Suzanne Cooper-Guasco:





    How is Congress representative?

    The House of Representatives is so constituted as to support in the members an habitual recollection of their dependence on the people. Before the sentiments impressed on their minds by the mode of their elevation can be effaced by the exercise of power, they will be compelled to anticipate the moment when their power is to cease, when their exercise of it is to be reviewed, and when they must descend to the level from which they were raised; there forever to remain unless a faithful discharge of their trust shall have established their title to a renewal of it. I will add, as a fifth circumstance in the situation of the House of Representatives, restraining them from oppressive measures, that they can make no law which will not have its full operation on themselves and their friends, as well as on the great mass of the society.


    WHAT IS THE PERSONAL SIDE OF CONGRESSIONAL SERVICE?

     

    Federalist 63:

    As the cool and deliberate sense of the community ought, in all governments, and actually will, in all free governments, ultimately prevail over the views of its rulers; so there are particular moments in public affairs when the people, stimulated by some irregular passion, or some illicit advantage, or misled by the artful misrepresentations of interested men, may call for measures which they themselves will afterwards be the most ready to lament and condemn. In these critical moments, how salutary will be the interference of some temperate and respectable body of citizens, in order to check the misguided career, and to suspend the blow meditated by the people against themselves, until reason, justice, and truth can regain their authority over the public mind? What bitter anguish would not the people of Athens have often escaped if their government had contained so provident a safeguard against the tyranny of their own passions? Popular liberty might then have escaped the indelible reproach of decreeing to the same citizens the hemlock on one day and statues on the next.

    BUT DOES THE SYSTEM WORK WITH POLARIZED AND NATIONALIZED  PARTIES? 

    There are bipartisan bills:  Franken and service dogs

    BESIDES PASSING BILLS, MEMBERS OF CONGRESS:
    • SERVE AS CONSTITUENT CONCIERGES
    • MAKE APPEARANCES IN THE CONSTITUENCY
    • MAKE SPEECHES
    • DO MEDIA INTERVIEWS
    • ISSUE PRESS RELEASES AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS
    HOLD HEARINGS:  FRANKEN REFLECTIONS

    Thinking about Congress, the presidency, emergencies, and foreign policy

    Presidents and Emergency Powers

    Governors actually have primary responsibility.

    Tocqueville:

    Now, it is this clear perception of the future, based on judgment and experience, which must often be lacking in a democracy. The people feel more strongly than they reason; and if present ills are great, it is to be feared that they will forget the greater evils that perhaps await them in case of defeat (p. 223).
    [The] great privilege enjoyed by the Americans is not only to be more enlightened than other nations but also to have the chance to make mistakes that can be retrieved (p. 225).

     One kind of mistake, however, is not retrievable.