See here for various visual depictions of Red and Blue America in 2004. And look here for what may happen in 2008.
Incumbents tend to win reelection, as these graphs show vividly.
The economy has a huge impact. Economist Ray Fair, among others, has devised a formula for predicting elections. You may plug in your own assumptions to test various scenarios.
For historical campaign ads, see here and here.
See Mike's post (below) for ads in the 2006 Maryland Senate race.
See here for an independent expenditure ad by a 527 group.
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