Trump’s win is already affecting the world economy and politics. The Mexico Peso has hit a record low, whereas the Russian ruble has spiked. If his election results have had this much effect at this point, we can only wonder what other changes we will see once he enters the White House. One big change that is not hard to predict is Trump’s effect on Asia.
Bloomberg Markets predict that Trump will impose tariffs on exports from three major east-Asian countries, South Korea, Japan, and China. If these tariffs do indeed come to effect in the next four years, its impact in Asia would be substantial, according to Nomura. South Korea is especially in danger of an economic collapse, because throughout Trump’s campaign, he has promised to make South Korea pay for U.S. military protection.
On his Youtube channel in 2013, he posted a video saying, “How long will we go on defending South Korea from North Korea without payment?” For the 28,500 American soldiers stationed, South Korea does actually pay about $861 million dollars each year. Although that is only a portion of the costs, it is a price agreed upon by the two ally nations since the end of World War II. Trump refuses to acknowledge the military and political advantage South Korea serves for America. The U.S. military presence in South Korea does more than just protect the South from the North. Its presence helps mitigate foreign relations between U.S., China, South and North Korea, and Japan.
As with the Mexican president who declared Mexico would not pay to have the wall built, there is very little chance that the Korean president would pay the U.S. any more money for military “protection.” The only other option would be for Trump to demilitarize Korea, in order to save U.S. costs. However, if Trump removes U.S. military presence in Korea, the U.S. would lose a strategic hold in Asia, where China and North Korea are armed with nuclear weapons. Furthermore, without U.S. military presence in Korea and Japan (he’s also threatened to remove U.S. army bases from Japan), South Korea and Japan would have no other choice to develop nuclear weapons of their own for national security reason, potentially starting an Asian equivalent of a cold war.
If Trump actually does anything he threatened to do, it would devastate Asia in terms of politics and economy. But we should not be as worried, because as Seth Meyers put it, “[...] one thing that makes me hopeful is we know from interviews he’s given over the years that he has, at any given point, held every position on every issue. He’s been pro-choice, pro-life, for the Iraq war, against the Iraq war - pretty much his only consistent position has been anti-Rosie O’Donnell.”
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