The Future of the Republican Party

            Before the election, when Trump was widely expected to lose, there was a debate over the future identity of the Republican Party. Would it convert entirely to a populist party that supported restricting immigration, or would the Trumpian element restrict itself to a wing of the party? After Trump’s victory, that debate is over. Trump’s views will not restrict itself to the position of a party wing. The Republican Party, with its embrace of immigration bans, nativism, and trade restrictions, is now the party of Trump. Two formerly prominent wings of the party will suffer at the hands of Trumpism. The religious right has already lost much of its former clout, and it will continue to march down the path to irrelevance. Throwing their weight behind a man who has openly bragged about sexually assaulting women has delegitimized the moral authority of the evangelical church. Evangelical leaders took a gambit and put policy goals before morality. Any future denunciation of a Republican candidate for any office by church leaders based on morality will ring hollow. Additionally, the neoconservatives will be crippled by Trump’s foreign policy. Trump’s promise to put “America first” means that the United States will no longer be engaged in world affairs unless there is a direct benefit to the nation. The pro-interventionists within the party will find themselves without a home.

            Trump’s victory has taken the party down a dark road, and it is frightening that its short-term prospects look strong. The Democrats have 23 seats up for reelection in 2018, and that number increases to 25 counting independents who caucus with the Democrats. Many of these seats are in states that went strongly for Trump, such as Missouri, Indiana, and Montana. Having to defend this many seats will make it difficult for them to make the midterm elections a referendum on Trump’s record. The Democrats will also have a difficult time trying to take back the House, as the congressional districts have been gerrymandered to favor Republicans.

Given these difficulties, there is reason for hope. Now that they are being forced to govern, Republicans are going to find themselves in a bind. If the policies that Trump has put in place for his first 100 days in office are made into law, the economic damage will be severe. The tariffs he is proposing would significantly raise the prices of goods, and a study by the Peterson Institute predicted that repealing major U.S. trade deals such as NAFTA will result in a recession.¹ Try as they may, the Trump administration will not be able to spin a recession to make it look like a boom. The left could see its own version of the Tea Party sweep of 2010 because of the economic pain Trump will cause. Conversely, this same sweep could happen if Trump backtracks on his promises. Judging from his early actions following his victory, he is doing just that. His promise to ban all Muslim immigration was taken down from his website the day after the election. Furthermore, Trump’s rumored cabinet appointees all appear to be made up of the same establishment Trump was elected to vanquish. These include a prominent Goldman Sachs executive, and a fixture at a Washington think-tank. If Trump’s constituents feel that they have been duped, they will punish him for keeping with the status quo. They are ravenous for change, and be it with Trump, or with another, they will have it.

¹Noland, Marcus, Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Robinson, Sherman and Moran, Tyler. "PIIE Briefing 16-6: Assessing Trade Agendas in the US ..." September 2016. Accessed November 12, 2016. https://piie.com/system/files/documents/piieb16-6.pdf.