Why were the polls so off? Why did no one predict Trump would win?

           After the surprising election on November 8^th, many Americans were shocked and upset by the outcome. So many active citizens, even those who cast their vote for Donald Trump, were caught off guard by the end result because of voter enthusiasm, third party candidates, the James Comey letter, and the silent majority.

            Democrats, in general, are less likely to get out and vote, especially when their candidate is not their first choice. On the other hand, Republicans are quite active in the voting booths and are often unafraid to speak up about their candidate of choice. Voting enthusiasm is defined by how likely someone is to actually leave the house and vote. Clearly, a pollster cannot predict turnout in their polls. And this is just the beginning of where the polls went wrong.

The pollsters were also wrong in predicting the huge impact third parties would have in the numbers. 4.5 million more citizens voted third party in 2016 than in 2012. Although it is unclear to decipher exactly which candidate these votes went against more, it is obvious that it did not hurt President Elect Trump.¹ Many voters opted for the third party option simply because they were so unsatisfied with the two main party choices. Some, however, felt corruption from the DNC after the Bernie Sanders dilemma and voted third party as a way of revolting against the DNC.²

Secretary Clinton, however, claims that she lost due to James Comey, the FBI director’s reopening of her email case just days before the election. Immediately, the reopened case brought concerns from many of Clinton’s supporters who were already weary of her untrustworthiness. Clinton believes that she was unable to culminate her campaign trial on a positive note, due to the energy surrounding the controversy. Hence, many undecided voters and borderline democrats opted for Trump, a third party, or did not show up to the polls at all. However, there were only 700,000 less people who showed up to vote than in 2012, and therefore it can be assumed that most voters either decided on Trump or a third party candidate.³

Lastly, there is a large population that could not admit they were voting for Trump or just ignored pollsters in general. It is impossible to have an accurate depiction of how the election will go if people are not honest when asked who they are voting for: Trump or Clinton. The silent majority shone through in the election when they showed up to vote.³

In conclusion, it was a surprise to many that Trump ended up with the victory. When polls forecasted Hillary Clinton winning, it did not encourage voters who were pro Clinton to get to the booths. Clearly, however, the Trump victory shocked many American citizens and active listeners across the world.

1.            Montanaro, Domenico. "7 Reasons Donald Trump Won The Presidential Election | KQED." NPR.com. November 12, 2016. Accessed November 12, 2016. http://www.kqed.org/news/story/2016/11/12/216291/7_reasons_donald_trump_won_the_presidential_election.

2.            McBride, Jessica. "2016 Final Election Results: Why Were Presidential Polls So Wrong?" Heavy.com. November 12, 2016. Accessed November 12, 2016. http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/clinton-vs-trump-presidential-polls-final-why-wrong-hillary-wisconsin-pennsylvania-turnout-michigan-iowa-ohio-new-hampshire-north-carolina-electoral-college-map-la-times-trafalgar-upshot-five-thirty-e/.

3.            Chozick, Amy. "Hillary Clinton Blames F.B.I. Director for Election Loss." The New York Times. November 12, 2016. Accessed November 12, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/13/us/politics/hillary-clinton-james-comey.html.

4.     McBride.