The New York Times recently put out a interactive chart which predicts the winner of the presidential election based on GDP, presidential approval, and GOP candidate ideology. Based on current predictions, it makes Obama much more likely to win than the conservatives but places him at a slight disadvantage to Romney and a large disadvantage to Huntsman. While the whole chart is interesting, I want to focus on the idea that Huntsman is the most likely to win the presidency and why that appears to be wrong.
Political Science articles like this one, point out that since Americans don't always vote, a motivated base is important and can make up for not winning independents. It seems that a Huntsman nomination in today's GOP would doom it to defeat. His fights with the GOP electorate over global warming and evolution, seem to ensure that many conservatives would not go out and vote for a former member of the Obama administration, and the fights are not over big enough substantive issues that would make many people vote for Huntsman and certainly not many more than would vote for Romney. In short, it does not appear that Huntsman would attract many more independents and Democrats than a man like Romney and would certainly lead to a major depression in GOP base turnout.
What do others think about this, or the poll in general?
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