Search This Blog

About this Blog

During the semester, I shall post course material and students will comment on it. Students are also free to comment on any aspect of American politics, either current or historical. There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges. This blog is on the open Internet, so post nothing that you would not want a potential employer to see. Syllabus: http://gov20h.blogspot.com/2023/08/draft-introduction-to-american-politics.html

Friday, December 14, 2007

More on Huckabee and Delegates

I mentioned the possibility of Gov. Mike Huckabee winning a large number of states but not the Republican nomination in class on Wednesday.  The math looks something like this:

States where Huckabee is currently leading or demographics favor him include these 15 for a total of 687 delegates:
NC (69), IA (41), SC (47), NV (34), AL (48), AK (54), GA (72), TN (55), WV (30), LA (47), KA (39), OK (41), NB (33), KY (45) and IN (32)

Guiliani can put up more delegates (735) with just eight states that he has a good chance at winning:
FL (114), CA (173), NJ (52), NY (101), OH (88), VA (63), IL (70) and  PA (74)

While this certainly doesn't account for all the states that either candidate could win, it is a pretty good prediction of what this race could look like if Huckabee continues to do well.  This race might come down to the great state of Texas and its 140 delegates if anyone wants to get the necessary 1,259 delegates to secure the nomination.  Guiliani once enjoyed a larger lead, but recent polls show his lead reduced to single digits in Texas.




No comments: