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During the semester, I shall post course material and students will comment on it. Students are also free to comment on any aspect of American politics, either current or historical. There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges. This blog is on the open Internet, so post nothing that you would not want a potential employer to see. Syllabus: http://gov20h.blogspot.com/2023/08/draft-introduction-to-american-politics.html

Friday, December 7, 2007

Huckabee + Romney + Religion = New Iowa Poll Numbers

A new Newsweek poll has Huckabee ahead in Iowa 2 to 1 over Mitt Romney. While Huckabee has been inching up as of late his numbers have never been this high. Amongst republicans he leads by 14 points (34 to 20) and by 22 points (39 to 17) amongst likely caucus goers. The survey was taken over Wednesday and Thursday (Romney's speech was given on thursday but the media began talking about it around Sunday or Monday)

There are a couple of other interesting numbers in the poll:

-When Huckabee and Romney supporters were asked if they supported their candidate 'strongly' or 'moderately' 54% of the Huck's fans were strong supporters compared to only 36% of Mitts.

-Huckabee leads Romney by 47 to 14 amongst evangelicals, who are predicted to make up 40% of the participants in the caucus.

-61% of Iowans say that they know that Huckabee was a minister, and knowing that 78% say that 'does not make much difference'

-84% know that Mitt is a Mormon, and there is a consistent group of about 17-20% who don't believe that makes him a Christian, and make them less likely to support him.

The poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from December 5-6. It surveyed 1,408 people and has margin of error of +/- 3% 19/20, +/-5% for republicans, and +/- 7% for likely republican caucus goers.

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