Search This Blog

About this Blog

During the semester, I shall post course material and students will comment on it. Students are also free to comment on any aspect of American politics, either current or historical. There are only two major limitations: no coarse language, and no derogatory comments about people at the Claremont Colleges. This blog is on the open Internet, so post nothing that you would not want a potential employer to see. Syllabus: http://gov20h.blogspot.com/2023/08/draft-introduction-to-american-politics.html

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

When can we start to trust the polls a bit more? Two weeks, according to this analysis.

According to this analysis by David Byler of RCP, early-state primary polls start to become more predictive approximately two weeks after Thanksgiving. The analysis used a simple linear regression technique and is based on data from the IA and NH polls from the 2008 Republican, 2008 Democratic, and 2012 Republican primaries.

The R-squared of the regression analysis, plotted here as "predictive power," begins to increase from 0.6 about two weeks after Thanksgiving.


Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)