Politics Goes to the Movies

Birth of a Nation (1915) -- the first movie to have a White House screening, sadly revealing Woodrow Wilson's writings and racial attitudes in the early 20th century.

Gabriel Over the White House (1933) -- a proto-fascist moment.

Mission to Moscow (1943) -- pro-Soviet propaganda (you read that correctly).

Duck and Cover (1951) -- civil defense documentary on saving yourself from the Bomb.

Red Nightmare (1962) -- DOD film asks: what if the Reds took over?

Fail-Safe (1964) -- after the Cuban Missile Crisis, a scary look at an accidental nuclear attack.

Dr. Strangelove (1964) -- a satirical look at an accidental nuclear attack.

Capricorn One (1978) -- in the paranoid 1970s, a fake Mars landing (start at 20 min.)

Deep Impact (1998) -- ten years early, we have an African-American president. That's the good news. The bad news is that a comet is about to destroy the earth.

Link and two questions

Here is an Economist article about how eco-demonstrators are sharing ideas and becoming more creative in protest planning.

Where does the President derive pardon power? Where do governors derive appointment power for retiring congressmen? These seem like areas where the checks and balances fail. A trial by jury can be overturned by lobbying one powerful man (or woman).

Civic Knowledge and the Mass Media

Pew looked at the issue of political knowledge. An update is here and another here.

More Pew data suggest problems for the MSM and opportunities for new media.

PBS documentary "Newswar"lays out some of the changes.

How big is the blogosophere? Some key blogs:

• The Huffington Post
  
• Daily Kos
• Michelle Malkin
• National Review Corner

See my media page for many links.
George Allen's "Macaca" gaffe circulated on YouTube and became a MSM story in The Washington Post. Reporter Mike Shear is a CMC alum (class of 1990).

Media bias? Media Research Center has one take. Media Matters has another.

NBC chair Bob Wright fostered autism coverage on his networks.

The Daily Show goes after Sarah Palin:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

The Daily Show's Best Sarah Palin Moments

Barack Obama Interview
John McCain Interview

Sarah Palin Video
Funny Election Video

House Members Have Room Draw, Too

From CQ Politics, November 21, 2008

Michigan Freshman Wins Best of the Worst Offices in House Lottery

By Edward Epstein, CQ Staff

Clutching floor plans in their hands, the House’s incoming freshmen patrolled the marble floors of the Cannon and Longworth office buildings Friday on sort of a treasure hunt.

The goal for the 54 newbies, including those still involved in undecided races, was to find office space. Their available choices were the most undesirable suites in the three House office buildings. Returning members, choosing in order of seniority, have already grabbed all of the prime real estate opened up by election defeats or retirements.

The day began for the freshmen or their stand-ins with a lottery.

They drew numbers — 1 to 54 — from a box. The lowest number allowed the first pick of offices for Rep.-elect Gary Peters, a Democrat from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. Peters knows something about lotteries. Until last year, he served on his state’s lottery commission. Picking No.54 was Rep.-elect Brett Guthrie, R-Ky. Rep.-elect Dina Titus, D-Nev., was so excited when she got the number 3 pick that she dialed her cell phone and woke up her husband back home in Las Vegas to tell him the news.

Afterward, the incoming freshmen had four hours to visit the available spots, still occupied by lawmakers who are departing, before they returned to the lottery site to announce their picks. Some members said they’d take what they could get and live with it — even if that meant ending up on the fifth floor of the Cannon Building, where most elevators don’t reach.

“I’m lucky to be here,” said Rep.-elect Michael McMahon, D-N.Y. “I’ll take an office in the Metro if that’s what it takes to work here, in order to go to work in the Capitol every day.”

Contested votes in Minnesota, and Democratic dominance in Washington

God bless public radio, as Minnesota Public Radio has put photos of challenged ballots in the Franken-Coleman recount fight on their website. These ballots are awesome, and you can spend endless time trying to decipher a voter's intent. I do not envy the Canvassing Board. Hat tip to the consistently excellent Economist blog, Democracy in America.

If Franken can pull out the win in Minnesota (and there's evidence that undervotes, when hand counted, usually favor Democrats), all of the attention will go to Georgia for the special election between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin.

Republicans in their last-decade heyday were never this close to Washington dominance. I don't believe it's good for the country that one party can steamroll legislation through Congress. I would rather Washington be in a permanent state of deadlock, passing nothing, because I believe Washington has a reverse Midas touch - things it touches become instantly worse for the country. So for these reasons I would vote for Martin if I was a Georgia voter in December.

Top Court in California Will Review Proposition 8

Prop 8 is now a California constitutional amendment. How can civil rights groups challenge it in court if it is part of the constitution? They argue, "it is a substantial revision of the state’s Constitution, and therefore requires legislative approval." Is this going to hold in court?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/us/20marriage.html?ref=us

Domestic Public Policy

• Data on federal spending
• Data on federal revenues
• Federal tax rate schedules
• HHS organization chart
• Spaghetti chart
• Diagnosis and treatment of autism: steps
• Diagnostic substitution

More on the BCS

How typical for the football player to engage in this conversation. Here it goes.....

I would agree that the BCS has often been wrong with its choice of teams to play for the national championship every year (with the exception of the USC-Texas game in 2005, which happened to be the greatest college football game ever played). However, I wouldn't say that the teams who have been clearly outmatched in their games is necessarily because they were unlucky. It's because they come from wealthier backgrounds. Take the most recent example, Ohio State. One of the most storied programs in college football, most if not all considered the 2006 team the best in the country and possibly the best team Ohio State has ever produced. They played against seemingly the best competition, beating then #2 Michigan in a game dubbed "judgment day" by the media and atrracted the largest televison audience for any regular season game ever. However, as demonstrated by the Buckeyes and Wolverines's veritable disembowlment in their bowl games at the hands of Florida and USC, respectively, it became clear that the pool of talent in the Big 10 did not come close to that found in the SEC, PAC 10 and Big 12.

While luck certainly played a factor in Ohio State's berth in the National Championship game last year, their placement came under the most unimaginable of circumstances. In the three weeks from when they played their last game to the final release of the BCS games, all nine teams ranked above them lost. This was unprecedented and unlikely to be defeated. As determined by bowl records over the last few years, the dominant conferences this year are the Big 12 and the SEC, neither of which can forseeably have a two-loss conference champion at this point (unless Missouri somehow figures out how to compete with teams that beat them by an average margin of 36). The best teams will be in the National Championship this year, but the barometer of talent is unsustainable. The system will be wrong again, and that's why this issue should be resolved with an eight team playoff, with automatic bids for the BCS conference champions and two at-large teams.

Affirmative Action Continuation

         Whether we like it or not, affirmative action remains a temporary solution to reconcile America's inequalities.  Affirmative action extends past racial inequality and affects gender equality in higher education.  At Swarthmore College, 3081 female students applied for a spot in the class of 2012.   Swarthmore only accepted 471 female applicants (15.28% accepted).  In addition, Swarthmore accepted 459 male applicants out of a pool of 2161 (21.2% accepted).  Admission at Swarthmore represent a trend at liberal arts college with disproportionate rate of female applicants to male applicants.  I doubt Swarthmore accepted inferior male applicants solely in pursuit of a balanced freshman class.  A gender disproportion at Swarthmore would likely dissuade future applicants in search of a balanced, co-ed institution.

The sheer quantity of male applicants at Massachusetts Institute of Technology outweigh their female peers.  Dominated by men with an aptitude for math and science, the technology industry represents one sector historically underrepresented by women.  Admissions data at MIT reflects this claim.  MIT only accepted 813 male applicants out of 8919 (9.11% accepted).  3526 female applicants vied for a spot in the class of 2012.  MIT accepted 740 of them (20.9% accepted).  Because of MIT's devotion to diversity, the class of 2012's gender ratio is 53:47.

Colleges should stray from limiting affirmative action to solely race.  Low income and first generation students (whose parents did not go to college) should also be courted in the admissions process.  Based on the U.S Census Bureau's  2007 poverty status supplement, approximately 12% of African-Americans hold a 4 year college degree or higher.  20% of Caucasians hold a 4 year college degree or higher, yet only 10.5% of Caucasians live below the poverty line.  24.5% of African-Americans fall below the poverty line.  The top 5% of African-American families ($198,165) make $97,769 less than the top 5% of Caucasian families. ($295,934).  I am not advocating for a 20 point boost for minority applicants, but do feel that institutions of higher education should reflect on their mission.  Educating the most deserving student should be a top priority, but colleges should also work to diminish social inequality by educating a diverse student body.

Auto Bailout Links

I believe it's a problem that people automatically turn to the government when a company nears bankruptcy to see how it will react. Becker and Posner are always a good place to start. David Yermack argues against the bailout in a WSJ opinion chock full of facts. The strongest argument in favor of the bailout is that the Big Three just need a loan, so that they can enter Chapter 11 bankruptcy (restructuring) rather that Chapter 7 (immediate liquidation). Tom Bevan, GM car owner, received an email plea directly from the company.

Team of Rivals?

Historian Matthew Pinsker has an opinion piece today in the LA Times about President Lincoln's cabinet, called the "team of rivals" because he invited former enemies to sit on the cabinet. This has been making news today because Obama invites comparisons to Lincoln and people think Obama is going to try to do the same thing.

Doris Kearns Goodwin won a Pulitzer Prize for her 2005 book on the subject, Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln
(which is currently enjoying a surge of popularity - #13 on Amazon. Anyway, Pinsker's point is that the Team didn't work out as well as Goodwin would have you believe. Lincoln passed over many of his friends, who weren't happy, and three out of the four original Rivals were gone within a year. So while Obama may use "Team of Rivals" rhetoric, his cabinet shouldn't follow that model.

On a different note, I'm not a fan of Hillary Clinton as the Secretary of State. In some parts of Washington inexperience is a benefit. Foreign policy is not one of them; we don't need new ideas about how to talk to our neighbors.

Policy Analysis

Prof Pitney yesterday asked for more substantive policy analysis, so here goes...
President Obama recently opined on an issue dear to the hearts of the male half of America, with broad bipartisan support: reforming the BCS football championship system. Obama wants to scrap the current system and promises to "throw his weight around." I'm wondering how he plans to accomplish this - send in the National Guard? Mark thought he'd issue an executive order.

The BCS currently amalgamates the opinions of coaches, sports writers, and computers to form a super-ranking. The top two teams in the BCS contest the national championship each year. However no one is happy with this system. Some people want a playoff system - the most commonly proposed playoff format, and the one Obama supports, is for the top 8 teams to battle for the championship over three weeks. Supposedly this is a "fair" system where we can crown a national champion and call that team the best team.

When we analyze this issue through the lens of our discussions over the course of a semester, there is only one conclusion: have Congress legislate the national championship teams. This may give an advantage to teams in states with large populations, like USC, Texas, Cal, and Texas Tech, but this proportional advantage in the House is balanced by even numbers in the Senate. Of course, the University of Illinois may be thrown into the BCS equation to sweeten the deal and avoid an Obama veto.

Opponents of the playoff system claim that this would make the season too long and too tiring for the players. This argument is flawed, because in an 8-team playoff only 2 teams would play 2 additional games and 2 teams would play one additional game. Furthermore, many players from the best teams go straight to the NFL, which has a 16 game season.

I would instead argue that when more teams contest the national championship, it becomes less likely that the best team will win. Most people believe that the national champion is the best team because they won the most games at the end of the season. Luck plays a huge role in sports, and the best teams often don't have the best records (The best indicator of strength is margin of victory, not won-loss record). In leagues where every team can play every other team, I think the winner should be the team with the best record at the end of the regular season, like in English soccer (England have a separate knockout competition called the FA Cup, where everyone from semipro teams to Manchester United play in the same bracket. Imagine if the Yankees played at CMS in the first round. The FA Cup is less prestigious than the league championship).

However, in college football this system is impossible because teams can only play 12 games per season, so some sort of ranking system becomes necessary. Coaches and sportswriters tend to value teams that got lucky (i.e. those with 0 or 1 losses) ahead of better teams that played tough schedules and had some bad luck. I favor a playoff system because the coaches and sportswriters will consistently vote the lucky, not good, teams into the championship game. A playoff gives those unlucky good teams a chance to show everyone how strong they are.

Kelo v. New London Update

Randal O'Toole, Cato Institute Fellow and blogger provides an update on the situation in New London, where Suzette Kelo and the other property owners have been evicted but there's been no development on the land. The Supreme Court's affirmation argued that there was a significant economic benefit to be realized and that it shouldn't be the Court's role to review every city's case for economic development.

So unfortunately we won't be seeing any of this in the USA anytime soon.

Federalism

CMC alum Tyler Olson, a member of the Iowa House of Representatives, argues for regulation of second-hand smoke:



CMC alum Chuck DeVore, a member of the California Assembly, argues against a "driving while texting" ban.



CMC alum Steve Bullock runs for attorney general of Montana:



Bipartisan pitch in Montana:



Results pitch in Indiana:



Governor Jindal responds to crisis:



Governor Davis gets in trouble:

Remember What I Said About Being Careful?

The 2008 Plum Book of administration jobs is now out.From the New York Times:

Want a top job in the Obama administration? Only pack rats need apply, preferably those not packing controversy.

A seven-page questionnaire being sent by the office of President-elect Barack Obama to those seeking cabinet and other high-ranking posts may be the most extensive — some say invasive — application ever.

The questionnaire includes 63 requests for personal and professional records, some covering applicants’ spouses and grown children as well, that are forcing job-seekers to rummage from basements to attics, in shoe boxes, diaries and computer archives to document both their achievements and missteps.

Only the smallest details are excluded; traffic tickets carrying fines of less than $50 need not be reported, the application says. Applicants are asked whether they or anyone in their family owns a gun. They must include any e-mail that might embarrass the president-elect, along with any blog posts and links to their Facebook pages. The application also asks applicants to “please list all aliases or ‘handles’ you have used to communicate on the Internet.”

(Click here for the rest of the article.)

Click here to see a pdf of the questionnaire.

three votes

So this may change- and will- but the sentae race in Alaska is currently three votes apart, kinda says something about there being a chance that a single vote can count.
http://www.adn.com/elections/story/586989.html

Courts, Civil Liberties, and Civil Rights

Barron v. Baltimore held that the Bill of Rights did not apply to the states.

Things changed with "selective incorporation."

Definition of "strict scrutiny"

Oral argument in Edwards v. Aguillard.

Oral argument in Gratz v. Bollinger.

Thanks for Your Comments

Thank you so much for your constructive suggestions. I cannot respond to each comment here, but thought it would be good to address certain key points:

• Final Exam. In addition to the air midterm, I shall distribute a practice final. Meet to assemble your own study guide. I do not grade on a curve, so you can only gain by working together. Check out Andrew Lee's "Beating Professor Pitney." Though a bit out of date, it gives you a good idea of how to assemble a study guide.
• Terms and Concepts. Some indicated that you would like a clearer explanation of terms and ideas that come up in class discussion. I shall address this request in class. You can help by asking for clarification when necessary. Do not worry that you will look uninformed. If you have a question, other students probably do, too.
• Cold-Calling. I shall make greater use of this tool to ensure that we stay on topic and that everybody takes part.
• Sample Papers. If you want examples of good student writing, see the links at: http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/govt/jpitney/writing.htm

Hoax, and Electoral College

1. Remember what I said about not automatically believing what you read on the Internet? Read on ....

2. From CQ Politics:

The latest Election Day contest to be decided delivered one of the smallest prizes: President-elect Barack Obama has, by a narrow margin, claimed the one electoral vote accorded to the winner of the popular vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District....

Nebraska is one of just two states — Maine is the other — that does not automatically award all of its electoral votes to the statewide winner. Each state accords two votes to the statewide winner, and one vote apiece to the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts. Obama’s win for one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes is, however, the first time there has been a split decision. And it occurred because of Obama’s strategy of campaigning heavily in places his campaign viewed as winnable, even though many had been Republican presidential strongholds for years.

Click here for the full story.

Courts

Federalism means that the US has two court systems. Concurrent jurisdiction is a source of conflict and confusion.

The reading from the Administrative Office does a good job of explaining the mechanics of the federal judiciary.

Alternative Dispute Resolution.

One aspect of this week's discussion is likely to affect you directly. At some point, perhaps soon, most of you will get a call to jury duty. California has a good instructional video.

According to Tocqueville (p. 275), the jury is "the most effective means of popular education at society's disposal." What do you think that phrase means?

Here is a brief clip of oral argument in the California Supreme Court. The case involves medical marijuana.

Current SCOTUS justices.

Merkley vs. Smith

Although I generally agree with Professor Pitney on the irrationality of voting, here's how my county voted in our Senatorial election (with 65% of the vote counted):

Merkley (D) - 58,367
Smith (R) - 58,352

Smith leads by roughly 5,000 votes in the state total tally, but many votes in the Portland area (which leans heavily Democratic) remain uncounted. Merkley led yesterday, Smith took the lead during the middle of the night, and the race should tighten again before the final vote is tallied. It could end up being very close.

The 2008 Election

The 2008 map

The 2008 exit poll

Exit poll on Prop 8

Obama victory speech

Legendary campaign ads (h/t to Kevin)

The International Perspective We Hoped For

The Times (UK) has a very well done piece about the election of Obama, and what it means for America and the world. What I found most striking, though, is how well it complements Obama's victory speech last night and Bush's speech from this morning. The writers of these speeches and those of much of the international coverage of this campaign outcome could have been the same! The tones of these international responses were expected, but to compare them with the American hope for what the election means for our image abroad, it seems rather perfect.

Obama, in his victory speech, said, " to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope."

More plainly, he said, "to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores...a new dawn of American leadership is at hand."

Bush said that the victorious Obama campaign "showed a watching world the vitality of America's democracy, and the strides we have made toward a more perfect union. They chose a President whose journey represents a triumph of the American story..."

And that Times article cites the reasons why Obama won, including:
- "The American people are becoming, literally, a different people."
- "The world is changing and with it America's place in the world."
- "The conventional Republican agenda has stopped working."

Could we hope for more perfect PR? Next step: following through on the promised change.

Typical Election Analysis

Aftermath of the Election

As people all over our country cast their ballots Democrats in Congress are already thinking about their immediate course of action once they gain their anticipated "unchecked" majority.
Charles Schumer (D-NY) in particular is optimistic about the chances for the Democrat party in introducing the "Fairness Doctrine" which would restrict the ability of radio stations to dictate their own programming.
As a citizen who is displeased with the shift in political power to the left, I am optimistic for future elections if this is the direction that the Democrat party is planning on moving. I believe that the American people are displeased with the Republican party and particularly the incumbent administration, however, I think the Democrats would be remiss to view today's election results as a mandate for liberalism which will endorse partisan measures such as the Fairness Doctrine. If there is a serious sentiment in the party towards pushing a center-right nation to the left, we may see a 1992/1994 situation which will lead to an intense backlash in the near future.

An Economist on Voting, and other sundry items

Both voting and not voting are motivated by the thought that you are better than other people. I am glad that we have an entire day devoted to this very important concept.

That's Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason, considering whether or not he should vote.

Meanwhile Robert Kaiser at the Washington Post wrote about Alan Abramowitz and whether or not campaign hullaballoo is a waste of time. Has anyone tested Abramowitz's data at the state level?

Here are ten reasons exit polls are unreliable. Note that today exit polls should project a double-digit Obama win.

Obama's Grandmother

Today we examined factors that influence voter preferences.  Since mainstream media had yet to publicize the death of Obama's grandmother, we could not discuss the subject during class.

Though speculating about the political advantages of Obama's personal tragedy disturbs me, to what extent do you think her passing will affect the decisions of certain voter demographics (if at all)?  

Campaigns and Elections

Voter turnout has not been as low as many think. Compare measures of voting-age population and voter-eligible population.

Federalism applies to elections. Voting systems vary by state, and often by county within states. These systems include: Direct Recording Electronic (DRE), Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail. (VVPAT), or optical scan ballot systems.

Redistricting:
Cracking, packing, merging, isolating
Rose Institute's Hall of Shame

What really matters in presidential elections? See Abramowitz.

See Obama ground game.

Legendary campaign ads (h/t to Kevin)

Other examples and the evolution of ad themes.

Fearless Forecast!

Here is my guess as to the most likely outcome of the election. My assumption is that current polls are roughly accurate.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 54%
McCain 46%

Electoral vote: Obama carries the swing states of

• Pennsylvania
• New Mexico
• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina

Bottom line: Obama wins 353 electoral votes to McCain's 185.

In the Senate, Democrats pick up seven seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 30 seats.
------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 1: Democratic Blowout!

In light of uncertainty and incomplete information, we might look at a couple of alternative scenarios. Suppose that the polls are understating Obama support. For instance, likely-voter models may be missing dramatic changes in the electorate. Also suppose that Obama's GOTV operations are historically effective.

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 58%
McCain 42%

Electoral vote: Obama carries all the swing states above, plus

• Missouri
• Indiana
• Montana
• North Dakota
• Georgia
• Arizona
• West Virginia
• Arkansas

Bottom line: Obama wins 417 electoral votes to McCain's 121.

In the Senate, Democrats gain nine seats: all the states above, plus Georgia and Minnesota. In this scenario, they get a filibuster-proof majority, provided that Lieberman does not switch sides.

In the House, Democrats gain 35 seats.
------------------------------------------------------------
Alternative Scenario 2: Upset!

Obama will win huge raw-vote totals in New York, Illinois, and California, so McCain probably cannot overtake him in the popular tally. As for the electoral college, however, the huge margins in these states represent wasted votes. That is, a candidate needs no more than a bare plurality to get all the electoral votes. McCain's vote has a more efficient distribution. Texas is the only big state that he could win comfortably. Most of his other state margins are modest, and if he wins big swing states, these victories will be very narrow. So consider this very unlikely but remotely possible scenario:

Two-party popular vote:
Obama 52%
McCain 48%

Electoral vote: McCain squeaks by in these swing states

• Colorado
• Nevada
• Virginia
• Ohio
• Florida
• North Carolina
• Missouri

Bottom line: McCain gets 274 electoral votes to Obama's 264. In this case, Democrats would immediately challenge vote totals in key states, and the Obama campaign would try to get at least six McCain electors to flip.

In the Senate, Democrats gain four seats: Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

In the House, Democrats gain 25 seats.

sorry

didnt really post correctly- just right click on the image and open in an new window

Funny Break

This is nothing related to the election, but since several of us aspire to attend law school I thought this would get some laughs.

It's OK To Not Vote

Numerous nonpartisan groups (Facebook, my parents and peers, corporations like Starbucks) have been urging me to get out and vote how I want on Tuesday. There are two problems with this approach; for one thing, more and more voters are mailing in their ballots ahead of time - I voted two weeks ago. I also question the assumption that high voter turnout is desirable. My California ballot had about 20 distinct elections and propositions on it. Conservatively, I spent about six hours figuring out how I wanted to vote. If the marginal Election Day voter is going to vote in 19 out of 20 elections by closing their eyes and stabbing at the ballot, how is democracy better off? Voting in and of itself isn't great, but informed voting is. Especially when most of the propositions, like a high-speed train across California, look great on their face but have ugly particulars.

Furthermore, as any economist will tell you, choosing not to vote is a rational decision. There is a significant time cost (looking up your polling place, debating the measures, taking time off work etc). From an individual perspective, it only makes sense to cast a vote if your vote has a significant chance of being the decisive ballot, i.e. the race is within 500 or so votes. For more, see Bryan Caplan's recent book The Myth of the Rational Voter, or this NYT article by the authors of Freakonomics.

I am not trying to say that no one should vote, or that people who want to vote should not vote. But if you don't want to vote or don't know that much about the issues you shouldn't feel compelled to cast a vote anyway.

Religion and Campaigns

If you have any doubt about religion's profound influence on politics, consider the ads below. Could you picture such ads in any other major industrial democracy?