Readings for Election Week

• Ron Brownstein, "The Hidden History of the American Electorate," National Journal, October 18, 2008.
• Alan Abramowitz, " Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for- Change Model," PS: Political Science & Politics, October 2008.
• Robert Draper, "The Making (and Remaking) of McCain," New York Times Magazine, October 22, 2008.
• Joshua Green, "Playing Dirty," The Atlantic, June 2004 (about opposition research in the 2004 campaign but mostly still relevant)

Debate talking points

Here is John Dickerson at Slate discussing the possiblity of a late-breaking election news surprise.

Parties and Campaigns

The New Deal Coalition:

• African-Americans
• Urban voters/BCEC (blue-collar ethnic Catholics)
• Jews
• The South
• Intellectuals
• Labor

Current party affiliation:



http://pewresearch.org/pubs/813/gen-dems

The typology: http://people-press.org/report/242/beyond-red-vs-blue



And more on the big sort...

A big sort in fundraising?


For next time, play the Redistricting Game
http://www.redistrictinggame.com/index.php?pg=game

Writing Advice

1. In endnotes, unlike bibliographies, the author's first name always comes first.



2. Use a shortened form for second and subsquent citations of a work.



3. Superscripts follow punctuation marks (except a dash) in text and appear outside a closing parenthesis.



4. Always introduce your quotations by identifying the speaker or writer in your text. Do not force your readers to go to the endnotes to figure out the origin of the passage that you quote.





3. Should you refer to the Democracy in America guy as Tocqueville, deTocqueville or De Tocqueville? The BBC provides an answer that applies to French names in general:

The rule is this -- a "de" attached to a single-syllable name stays no matter
what. Anything longer, and removal of the honorific means removal of the "de."
So you read de Gaulle's books, but you peruse Tocqueville's works -- and
Villepin's, as the minister is also an author. And "de,"by the way, is NEVER
capitalized. [Editorial note: I have used American spelling and punctuation.]

The CMC Writing Center, in Bauer 32, offers writing advice – in half-hour sessions – to all CMC students in need of help. Click here for hours of operation.

Parties

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/813/gen-dems

Party in Government and Party Organization

.........................Legislative..........................Executive

Party in Gov.....House Dem Caucus................POTUS
........................House GOP Conference
........................Senate Dem Caucus
........................Senate GOP Conference

Party Org........DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, NRSC......DNC, RNC

Party in the Electorate

• Cinematic Map of Party Strength
• Landslide Counties Graph
• Landslide Counties Map

For Next Time:

Look at how your neighbors contributed.

Go to http://typology.people-press.org/ and answer the "Where do you fit?" questionnaire.

"America has had great parties, but has them no longer." - Tocqueville, "Parties in the United States"

Aren't we always wishing for the parties of our forefathers?

What sort of metrics could we use to measure party greatness?

Sloppy news journalism

I know we all enjoy piling it on McCain, and I wish I could write a similar speech about some claim the Obama campaign made, because the real story here is sloppy reporting amplifying lies put out by a campaign. Making the rounds today is the claim that John Podesta, the Obama transition team leader, has already written an inaugural speech for Obama. This is a false claim. As Matthew Yglesias points out, John Podesta wrote a hypothetical inaugural speech for a progressive candidate in his book, submitted to the publisher way back in March or April. At the time Podesta supported Hillary Clinton. Yet the news coverage presents each side equally, and refuses to refute the falsehood (in the above Politico article, rather than stating the truth at the beginning, we find out the truth in paragraph 13). In turn this leads lazy readers to believe that the statement is actually true, that Obama did write an inaugural speech and is now trying to deny it. This happens all the time with news media. Some issues aren't split down the middle - one side is right and the other isn't. Yet in the interest of a balanced story, news tries to present both sides. The truth gets obscured.

We expect this sort of spin from campaign literature (Willie Horton et al.) but shame on the media when this gets picked up and amplified.

Even the Libertarians Support Obama

Interestingly, Radley Balko, a senior editor at Reason, a (slightly-right-leaning) libertarian magazine, and a former policy analyst for the Cato Institute, which came up in class today, essentially endorsed the Democratic Party and Barack Obama. Balko said, essentially, that the Dems can't be any worse for liberty than the Republicans have been:

"You can either endorse the idea of a massive, invasive, ever-encroaching federal government that's used to promote center-left ideology, or you can endorse the idea of a massive, invasive, ever-encroaching federal government that's used to promote center-right ideology."

Balko is encouraging libertarian-minded readers to vote Democratic to repudiate the Republican party for straying from its small-government, liberty-focused roots, but he is cynical (as I am) about the possibility that a Democratic victory would appear as anything other than a mandate for leftist Democratic policies.

Interest Group Politics

Thank You for Smoking:

Thank You For Smoking - We Call Ourselves the Mod Squad Movies & TV SPIKE.com

The real MOD Squad

• Tobacco Institute (defunct)


• Distilled Spirits Council


• National Rifle Association

The NRA is a conglomerate, consisting not only of the NRA (a 501(c)(4)), but also:

• NRA Political Victory Fund (a PAC)


• NRA Foundation (a 501(c)(3) nonprofit)


• NRA Institute for Legislative Action (a separate 501(c)(4))

The Armenian Embassy & Diaspora Groups

• Armenian National Committee of America
• Armenian General Benevolent Union
• Armenian Assembly of America

Tips on lobbying

California Ballot Propositions

On my blog I summarize and discuss the upcoming statewide ballot propositions in California. I also included my reasons for voting/abstaining, although given a random ballot proposition there's a 95% chance my vote is "No."

Presidency and Partisanship

High-ranking presidents have tended to have large percentages of co-partisans in Congress at the start of their terms:

..............................House.............Senate

Washington.........57....................69
Jefferson.............64....................50
Jackson...............64....................52
Lincoln................59....................62
T. Roosevelt.......56....................62
FDR.....................72....................61



The Smoking Gun:



Nixon Farewell:



Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" Speech

Another side of Palin

Reports that Sarah Palin abused her power as Governor in an attempt to have her ex-brother-in-law fired were released over the weekend. What does this say about the ethics guiding one of our VP nominees?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/us/politics/11trooper.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=palin%20chastised&st=cse

Campaigns

I'm getting really tired of the negative advertising, and especially of the negative advertising that has absolutely no facts on it. Just opinions.
I mean, come on McCain, can't you do better than an advertisement which sounds like a scolding mother in the twilight zone. "Who is Obama?"

Sarah Palin Debate Flow Chart

A flow chart of Sarah Palin's thoughts during the deabte...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/sarah-palin-debate-flowch_n_131607.html

Friedman on Palin

Rather than firing cheap shots at Palin's diction as Maureen Dowd does (which seems to be all Dowd in particular is capable of), Friedman takes a much more substiantive and interesting stance against her statements in the VP debate on taxes. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/08/opinion/08friedman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

The Worst Debate Ever

I watched last night's debate hoping to see one of the candidates make a critical error. This didn't happen. I found myself more interested in the facial expressions of the audience than in what the candidates were saying. The debate seemed more scripted than ever. Here is an article from Politico about last night's debate and why it was so bad:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14396.html

Congress: Institutions and Individuals

If you want to know a member of Congress, you better know a district. (See if your home member appeared.)

Members nowadays reach constituents through the web. See the homepages of Representatives Lois Capps (D-CA), David Dreier (R-CA), and Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Look at various constituent services. How do they help members win reelection?

In addition to helping individual constituents, senators and House members steer projects to their constituencies. See CNN report on an "earmark." See here for a map of some earmarks.

Legendary Campaign Ads

With McCain down in the polls and the race nearing the finish line, I for one am hoping he strikes with an effective, truth-stretching, devastating campaign ad that sweeps him to victory.

Let's remember Dukakis had a big lead in 1988 and then these happened:

Or this great Reagan ad from 1984 on Russia:



Or the ad that doomed Barry Goldwater in 1964:

Polarization and the Bailout

http://msunderestimated.com/SNLBailoutSkit.wmv

If you want to know why YouTube took down the original version, see:
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/snl-take-down-taken-down/

Sarah Palin's Verbal Vomit

Maureen Dowd's latest column mocks Sarah Palin's loose interpretation of grammar and proper syntax. Although Sen. McCain may mock Sen. Obama's inspiring speeches, he must admit that Obama and his speech writers have a way with words...or at least appreciate the English language enough to follow the rules of grammar. I know that voters want to feel a connection with the candidates and sometimes the "could I have a beer with them" factor outweighs policy, but can we agree that the head of our nation must sound educated and competent?

Could Sarah Palin's folksiness really be her lack of substance and articulation? According to Maureen Dowd,

"She dangles gerunds, mangles prepositions, randomly exiles nouns and verbs and also — “also” is her favorite vamping word — uses verbs better left as nouns, as in, “If Americans so bless us and privilege us with the opportunity of serving them,” or how she tried to “progress the agenda.”

I don't think Strunk and White would approve either...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/opinion/05dowd.html?em

And the word of the day is Maverick

Saturday night live- Joe Biden and Sarah Palin

The sad thing? The actual debate was much more entertaining. After all, Sarah Palin actually said the phrase "Say it ain't so, Joe."

Congress I

See chart for trends in congressional party unity.

Other data on party polarization in Congress.

Consider four strategic postures for a party in Congress:

• Majority/president's party
• Majority/out-party
• Minority/out-party
• Minority/president's party

A meltdown:




Here is a good review of how a bill becomes a law.

Thoughts on Ronald Brownstein's "The Second Civil War: How Extreme Partisanship Has Paralyzed Washington and Polarized America"

Brownstein documents four distinct ages of American politics since 1896: intense partisanship, then what he terms the "golden age" when Congress had effectively four parties, then gradual return to partisanship, then intense partisanship again now.

Is it possible instead that Republicans are great at enforcing party discipline and Democrats can't enforce a majority? When Republicans are in the majority and enforcing party discipline the Democrats realize they need to get their act together too. When the Democrats are in control everything falls to pieces on both sides of the aisle.

Also, Brownstein catalogues Wilson's efforts to create the League of Nations, and blames their failure on partisanship. "Wilson failed to meet [the challenge of legislating America's new role in the world] largely because of the limitations of the intensely partisan governing style he had pursued throughout his presidency," page 42. But then on page 71 while documenting the criticisms of the consensus-based Congress, "Washington was incapable of bold steps at home or abroad." He can't have it both ways.

Also, what happened to limited government being a populist Democratic idea? Did the size of government reach some critical mass where everyone changed their view from, "Keep your fingers out of my pie" to "the only way I can get what's fair is through a government transfer"? Now the only way to get a bill through Congress is to provide a little something for everyone.

Creepy connections...

The Penn application essay gives you three lines to name a professor you'd like to study under, and my answer was "John DiIulio, for having the temerity to call the Bush cabinet a bunch of 'Mayberry Machiavellis.' Given that, I am embarrassed it took me 10 minutes to figure out the answer to my first question...

Also, if you're struggling don't overlook Urban Dictionary.

Tom Davis Gives Up - NYT

The way Rep. Tom Davis sees it, the system has become dysfunctional. Bush has so destroyed the party’s public standing and Congress has become so infected with a win-at-all-costs mentality that there is no point in staying.

The NYT has a piece talking about how many moderate Republicans are retiring from the House because Congress is "the most polarized it has been in a century." This relates to what Brownstein talks about in Second Civil War.

SNL Where Bill Clinton Stands

SNL Presidential Debate. McCain and Obama go head to head...

Citizenship

• Note requirements for naturalization.
  Ponder the official citizenship oath.
• Click here to see a graph showing the foreign-born population of the US 1850-2000.
• New citizenship test.
• Several years ago, President Bush signed an executive order to provide for faster naturalization of noncitizens serving in the military.